With the Red River Shootout on their brains, these two have had a hard time focusing on handicapping this week. Keep that in mind.
Also, look for Homerism’s official OU-Texas pick below.
WEEK SIX–The Skinny
(Last Week: 3-3; Overall: 18-10-2)
I guess I won’t be accused of this often, but I put too much thought into last week’s picks. My gut told me Nebraska was overrated, but the Wisconsin pick seemed too obvious. My bad!
I have been reviewing the fall’s new programming and I must say the CW has done it again with Hart of Dixie! Imagine Sweet Home Alabama meets Doc Hollywood, starring Rachel Bilson for a little eye candy. Hart of Dixie gets 3.5 Skins.
Louisville at North Carolina (-14.5)
I generally shy away from picking the always-unpredictable ACC. I’ll be honest. I do not watch much ACC football and given the choice I will take almost any conference over the ACC. The only thing halfway intriguing about the ACC is a 5’5″ booster planning rap video experiences for The U’s football team. It’s not just the sunny weather and beautiful women that attracts kids to Miami.
As for the game, Louisville hasn’t been the same since Robert Petrino left town. The Cardinals’ defense is one of the worst in college football.
UNC is still reaping the benefits of Butch Davis and John Blake’s tag team “recruiting” practices. John Blake had the finishing move off the top rope. David Boren may not be popular with Sooner Nation at the moment, but at least he got rid of Blake before he put the death nail in the OU football program for good, care of the NCAA.
The Skinny says: I like UNC big at home.
Wyoming (+11) at Utah State
Speaking of games lacking intrigue, this is one of the worst matchups on the board this week. Personally, I believe Aggies will make some noise in the WAC this season. I love the way the Aggies can run the football, even on a vaunted SEC defense. But, Utah St. is coming off back-to-back tough losses to Colorado St. and BYU.
Sure, the Wyoming Cowboys’ schedule has been less than impressive this season, especially following Nebraska’s performance last weekend. College football is about matchups: Wyoming is coming off a bye, and I think the Cowboys have the offense to keep this game close.
The Skin says: I’ll take Wyoming +11.
Lee Greenwood Special: Southern Miss (+2) at Navy
As much as I would hate it, I may have to lobby BH to do away with the LGS after this season. I am generally not one to shy away from a challenge, but trying to make sense of these service academies is like trying to decipher a Paul Finebaum caller. It’s impossible.
Air Force-Notre Dame might be the toughest game on the board this week. So, I will stick with S. Miss at Navy. Southern Miss will put up points on Navy. The question is can the Eagles slow down the Navy’s prolific rushing attack? I think they can.
Skinny says: I’ll take the road dog!
Boston College (+21) at Clemson
Ok, so I might be falling back into the same trap as last week, but I think this is a tough spot for Clemson. Give credit to Clemson. The Tigers are 5-0 following wins over Auburn, FSU, and at Va. Tech, although I believe FSU gets the better of Clemson in a different spot on the schedule.
On the other side of this game, what has happened to BC? It is inconceivable to me there isn’t a better program east of Ohio and north of the Carolinas. I know college football doesn’t enjoy the same popularity in this region as Alabama or Texas, but the population alone between DC and Boston? It just doesn’t add up?
BC isn’t much of an opponent this year, but this has all the signs of a classic letdown game for Clemson.
The Skinny says: I’ll take Boston College getting 3 TDs.
Michigan at Northwestern (+7.5)
I admit to flip-flopping on this game all week. I do not believe either side has shown its true colors.
Michigan has one impressive win, yet the Wolverines were anything but impressive in that win against Notre Dame.
Which is the true Northwestern team? The team that lost at Army or the team that played that played Illinois down to the wire in Champaign last weekend? As always, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
I expect Northwestern to play well in this game and cover the spread. The real tipping point for me is the fact the Wolverines have yet to play a game outside the Big House. There is no substitute in college football for road experience.
The Skin says: I would not be surprised to see Northwestern win this game straight up.
Maryland at Georgia Tech (-14)
I got lucky last weekend with the backdoor cover against the Tech thanks to a couple late TD’s from NC State. This week, I am going to flip things around and take the Yellow Jackets at home against a very pedestrian Maryland team.
(I flirted with Stanford-Colorado game, but I think the books have caught up with Stanford. Laying 30 points is a risky proposition regardless of the matchup.)
The Skinny says: Tech all day.
WEEK SIX–Blatant Homerism
(Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 18-11-1)
This week’s theme: Overreaction. It looks to me as though public perception of recent events has skewed a few lines that gamblers can exploit.
Famous last words.
Auburn at Arkansas (-10)
Hey, did you hear? Auburn won at South Carolina last week. Truthfully, it sounds like a much better win than it really is.
The public has overrated South Carolina from the jump. The Gamecocks have a lot of great parts in guys like Marcus Lattimore, Alshon Jeffrey and Jadeveon Clowney. Not coincidentally, teams that beat South Carolina are generally getting more respect than they deserve.
In this case, the Tigers and their horrendous defense are traveling to Fayetteville to take on one of the most prolific offensive attacks in college football. The Razorbacks took a big hit in the public’s eyes after losing badly to Alabama. More teams will find out there’s not shame in that.
BH says: Keep riding the Hogs.
Texas A&M (-8.5) at Texas Tech
I know what you’re thinking: BH never plays road favorites. I ask you, Why should we be slaves to conformity?
Everyone has jumped off the Aggies’ bandwagon. There’s plenty of good reason. If the last two weeks proved anything, it’s that A&M doesn’t have stomach to make the leap into the country’s upper echelon of teams yet.
However, people seem so caught up in the fact that A&M collapsed two weeks in a row that they’re failing to recognize that the Aggies lost to two quality teams in Arky and Oklahoma State.
Texas Tech has a nice undefeated record, but the Red Raiders have beat some tomato cans and haven’t looked good doing it. A&M should have its way with the Tech D.
BH says: Aggies get back on track, covering the 8.5.
Michigan at Northwestern (+7.5)
We’ve got a live ‘dog here, folks.
Michigan hasn’t played on the road yet, and we’re five games into the season. I don’t know much about Northwestern at this point, but this is the kind of situation where I’m going against the Wolverines the vast majority of times.
BH says: Michigan by not enough, if at all.
LGS: Southern Miss at Navy (-2)
Let’s not make this too difficult. This may not be a vintage Navy team, but the Midshipmen’s funky option game should throw the Golden Eagles out of whack.
BH says: Navy.
Florida State (-10) at Wake Forest
For some reason, this line has been drifting down towards a surprising Wake team all week. With bets coming in at roughly two to one on the Seminoles, are the sharp gamblers feeling the Demon Deacons here?
I don’t know why they would be. Florida State just had a week off to get healthy after two tough games against Oklahoma and Clemson. Coming off of two straight losses, look for FSU to be motivated and sharp to get back on track.
BH says: Easy cover for FSU.
Oklahoma (-10) versus Texas
*Dallas
All week, the talk about Texas in this game has focused on the Longhorns’ two new coordinators, Bryan Harsin and Manny Diaz. Honestly, if these guys didn’t work the Evil Empire, I’d be a huge fan. They’re both innovative and energetic, and their fingerprints are all over this Texas team already.
Somehow, though, UT has managed to win this game in years past with Greg Davis calling the plays and a cavalcade of defensive strategists. Is it possible that we may be overemphasizing the really effect of coaching in this rivalry?
While everyone wants to talk about the coaches, I’m going to focus on the guys who will actually be playing.
On offense, Texas will be rotating two freshmen at quarterback. Yes, that did work with Colt McCoy. The track record for young QBs in general against the OU defense historically, however, is not good.
Texas’ best receiver is a freshman who will be going up against cornerbacks who will be playing in the NFL within the next two years.
Texas’ offensive line isn’t much different from the one that got torn up last year by every defense with a pulse.
Honestly, I just don’t see the ‘Horns having much success moving the ball on offense, and the potential is there for some damning mistakes, too. Texas’ defense can hold off OU for a while, but how long?
Will it shock me to see UT win this game? Absolutely not. The ‘Horns are talented, precocious and well-coached.
Moxie only gets you so far, though.
BH says: Oklahoma 35, Texas 17.