Keeping up with the Phoneses

For having put so few products of real relevance into the marketplace recently, Palm and the newly-branded HP WebOS have garnered tons of attention.  Some people in technology journalism may have a soft spot for the company that at one time owned the PDA and smartphone market, but the attention is well-deserved in light of how modern the OS itself feels.  The cards interface really does feel more like “real” multitasking.  Palm has let everyone down by failing to make the small improvements that matter or putting WebOS onto competitive hardware, but it’s too late to proclaim WebOS dead, especially given the push HP is expected to make.

With the introduction of the Palm Pre 2 and WebOS 2.0 this week, HP is apparently pushing out the remaining development of its platform that was uniquely Palm before the HP purchase.  The Pre 2 is nothing more than an update to an existing product that should have come out months ago.  Friday’s launch on French carrier SFR, and the subsequent rumored launch on Verizon and other carriers is likely to have very little impact.  Even though the build quality of the Pre 2 is superior to its predecessor, the phone is still clearly outmatched next to the latest generation of iPhone, Android, and now even Windows Phone 7 phones.  Most observers believe that HP will finally go ahead with its hardware roadmap sometime this next year, and today’s rumor of 5-6 Palm devices contracted form Foxconn and Compal would seem to bolster that theory.  One thing is without question, though: if HP is going to have any chance of making Palm relevant in the smartphone market, they will need to put out that hardware as soon as possible to combat any more growth from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.

The question of hardware is one relegated to the Palm brand and the smartphone game, but it is also one that depends on whether that’s a game HP is completely invested in.  HP has chosen to retain the Palm name on smartphones, while referring to WebOS as HP WebOS.  When HP originally purchased Palm, it took pains to affirm that they were “doubling down on WebOS.”  Since then, recently-departed CEO Mark Hurd has made a number of remarks downplaying the importance of smartphones in their overall WebOS strategy.  Given HP’s clear desire to put HP WebOS on tablets and even printers, it’s only fair to ask how committed they are to playing in what is arguably a more important market.  I suspect that HP is not going to abandon smartphones in its desire to make an aggressive play in the tablet space, but what they risk in this distilled approach is failing to ship products as fast as needed.

The smartphone race is a rapidly-moving one that has already left Palm behind multiple times in recent years.  Palm made a gigantic splash at CES in 2009 with their unveiling of WebOS and the Pre, only to see that excitement dissipate as they took six months to ship the phone against an updated iPhone (3GS).  If that wasn’t bad enough, their exclusive with Sprint prevented them from launching the Pre Plus on Verizon until January 2010, at which point it was dead on arrival against the Motorola Droid and the ensuing avalanche of Android handsets.  The $99 price point of the underpowered Pixi might have seemed genius in early 2009, but less brilliant when it launched late in the year against an iPhone 3G and the Droid Eris for the same price.  Now we have the Pre 2 shipping way too late to be competitive with any of the high-end or even mid-range devices.  If HP can’t release a device by early next year that can give people a reason to try WebOS one more time, they may have missed their final chance.

Still, a company doesn’t spend 1 billion dollars to take a chance on becoming relevant in the phone market.  While this distracted focus on phones and tablets may cost HP a place at the smartphone table, it may put them on the tablet map.  The scalability of WebOS makes it a perfect candidate for use on tablets, and the very public removal of the HP Slate from the consumer market underscores HP’s need to find a solution for slate-style computing.  With the proper care, HP could easily take the solid foundation of WebOS and turn it into a success.  A credible browser, native touch UI, and the innovative “cards” interface could translate well and stand out amongst a weak field of Windows 7 and Android tablets hoping to dethrone the iPad. HP has a bit more time to develop its tablet plans for no other reason than that there has not been a single competitive tablet from anyone other than Apple.  They clearly want to win in that space, but the question will be at what cost?  Will the slate distraction cause Palm to lose their last chance at relevance in smartphones?  The one thing we know is that it won’t take long for us to find out.