Google loses its Chrome finish

Some sanity finally seemed to win out Monday at the Web 2.0 summit as Eric Schmidt revealed that Chrome OS notebooks are still on the product road map.  More specifically, he seemed to acknowledge the growing confusion about whether or not Chrome OS was going to be targeted for notebooks or tablets, something that hasn’t been clear at all in the more than a year since Chrome OS was first announced to the public.  Just recently, there were a number of reports that Motorola would be releasing a Chrome OS tablet on Verizon for the holidays, though that plan seems to have fizzled with the holiday shopping season in full swing and the presence of the iPad and Galaxy Tab in Verizon stores.  Schmidt did, say, however, that Android is their operating system “optimized for touch” and that it would essentially be their tablet strategy in the near-term.  This, of course, makes far more sense than using Chrome OS on tablets, as the tablets would have been limited at best in consumers’ minds and not built from the ground up to support touch.

When you look back at early demos of the first Android prototypes, it’s questionable how much they intended to build in a touch framework at the core of the system, but at the very least Android is a fully-functioning touch operating system on smartphones today.  It only makes sense that a tablet in today’s consumer market would support native applications anyway, as web apps have not caught up and this space is currently defined by the iPad.  While Google’s goal is certainly to move all applications to web apps, there are battles lines that seems to have been drawn between Apple and Google on whether this should happen, and certainly when it should happen.  This could be part of the reason that Google is behind in shipping Chrome OS notebooks as they try to find a way to increase the functionality of a browser-only and web-only operating system.  The other reason Google is likely making the choice to put Android on tablets is a sheer issue of economics.  Chrome OS was always intended to be a low-cost netbook product at first, something doesn’t seem to be possible with 7-inch Android tablets and the 10-inch iPad both carrying a $500 entry price ($500 is a WiFi-only estimate based on the fact that the 3G Galaxy Tab is currently hovering around $630 at cellular carriers, the same price as the 3G iPad).

The delay in Chrome OS notebooks was starting to draw into question whether or not they would ever arrive.  After all, it was announced in July 2009, previewed later in November, and slated for a mid-2010 release.  It seems certain that Google is going ahead with its plans, but it’s also fair to question whether they should be.  They’ve clearly put a number of resources into creating and shipping the first true web-based computer, but the landscape has changed dramatically since Google announced their plans over a year ago.  The iPad has been an obvious game-changer, a product that has even more firmly established the public fascination with native apps.  The success of Apple’s iOS platform on both the iPad and iPhone has proven that, for now, native apps are more complete and compelling than web apps.  The irony, of course, is that it is not just iOS, but also Android that has established this as a popular trend outside of just Apple products.  Since the Chrome OS announcement, Android has also exploded, pushing the app model into the mainstream.

In a different world, Chrome OS might have had a chance to take hold as a useful and innovative OS.  In this world, however, the advantages are all pretty much mitigated.  When Google unveiled Chrome OS, they touted fast boot times and low cost as compelling features.  When the iPad or an Android tablet is essentially an “instant on” machine, boot time for a computer is almost irrelevant.  Both of these products have full browsers as well as rich ecosystems of native apps.  They aren’t currently as cheap as Google is probably aiming for with Chrome OS notebooks, but they could be in another year.  There’s also no serious technical reason why Android can’t run a full Chrome browser experience.  Google has already put Chrome onto their Google TV, an Android-powered platform.

Google has a very specific wish to move the world to web apps.  The more information and utility that is on the web, the better for their dominance of the online search and advertising space.  Apple has clearly bet its immediate future on the success of native apps where they are able to control their platform and make a compelling case for their hardware.  The irony of Android’s success is that it is keeping Google from pushing consumers further onto the web.  The significance of Android tablets coming to market before or at the same time as Chrome OS notebooks can’t be overstated.  It is a tacet admission that Apple’s strategy is winning and that the world isn’t ready for completely cloud-based computing.  Looking at the huge success of the iPad, if Android tablets are at all decent they are likely to dwarf their less-featured Chrome OS netbook siblings.  There may still be a case for a netbook over a tablet for many use cases, but that case isn’t very strong when so many quality notebooks that run Windows are available.  Even the new Macbook Air could be considered as cutting into that space.  Google is now left with an operating system they introduced last year that they can’t make compelling enough to get out the door.  “Android fragmentation” may be an overused buzzword in the tech community, but in this case it’s true in a different way, fragmenting the basic strategy of Google, leaving consumers and pundits to wonder what it is that they’re actually trying to do.