Will the Nexus S carry on the family name by failing?

The internet was madly scrambling today, trying to put together the pieces (fragments?) of the real story behind the rumored Nexus S from Samsung.  This device is, purportedly, designed to be a sort of successor to the Nexus One in that it will be a Google experience device meant to showcase a “pure” build of Android 2.3 Gingerbread.  It remains to be seen if the branding on this phone will be “Google” or “Samsung with Google,” though the leaked photos from Engadget seem to put that issue to rest and that it will be “Google.”  The name “Nexus” leads many to associate it only with Google’s previous effort in this space, the Nexus One, but Google has always introduced a new version of the OS with a stock build of the software, going back all the way to the G1.  Many people forget that the original Droid last November was a stock 2.0 build, something that made the Droid 2′s Motoblur skin that much more offensive.

This summer, Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt claimed that the Nexus One met its goal to dictate the specs of the device and raise the caliber of hardware on which Android was being built and released.  Schmidt claimed this as a success, since the Nexus One was the first 1Ghz Snapdragon Android phone with 512 MB of RAM, blowing most other Android phones away and setting a new ground level for high-end devices.  A month before, however, Android founder and director Andy Rubin admitted that the goal of shaking up the mobile industry by cutting the carriers out of the selling process was a failure.  In fact, Google’s intent was to sell the phone through their web store unlocked, thereby making the carriers only necessary for service and making it harder for them to lock down restrictions and customizations that tend to hurt consumers.  It was an ambitious goal that failed much worse than Schmidt would admit, since U.S. consumers are addicted to subsidies and Verizon and Sprint had the ability with their CDMA networks to completely dismiss Google’s plans by not working with them.

In the last year, we’ve seen Android take a huge leap in visuality and market share.  Manufacturers have completely embraced the platform as their future and have been one-upping each other throughout the year.  Since the launch of the Nexus One, we’ve seen almost a straight progression of new kings of the hill:  the Droid Incredible, the HTC Evo, the Samsung Galaxy S varieties, the Droid X, the Droid 2 (maybe not such a king), the G2, and now the MyTouch 4G.  In Europe, they have had their various counterparts, but HTC just dropped the Desire Z and Desire HD as their new flagship phones.  How many of these phones run stock Android?  Zero.  The manufacturers and the carriers have shown, likewise, zero interest in putting out stock Android builds, preferring to try to differentiate themselves with software and services that almost no regular consumers actually want.  Google’s open-source approach to Android makes it currently impossible to coerce them to do otherwise.  Likewise, their choice to work on the OS in-house until they release the complete software build makes it difficult for manufacturers to start working on new builds early.  It’s the worst of both worlds and is directly responsible for devices coming out with old versions of the software and upgrades not happening quickly enough, if at all.

Furthermore, did the Nexus One really help push the Android platform further in terms of hardware?  While most Android phones in 2009 were pretty weak, the Motorola Droid had only a marginally slower processor and a slightly higher screen resolution.  HTC already had the HD2 on the market, a Windows Mobile 6.5 phone with a 4.3-inch screen that would eventually evolve into the Evo on Sprint.  HTC revealed the Desire in February 2010, meaning it must have been in the product pipeline around the same time as the Nexus One.  While the Nexus One may have been the most visible high-end Android device, it’s probably straining credulity to think that dictated the path manufacturers took going forward.

So on the brink of the introduction of a new Google experience device, it bears asking; will it matter what Google and Samsung put on this device?  Even if the report by InfoSync that the new phone will be the first with the new dual-core Samsung Orion processor, this is likely to be a one-off effort in terms of a stock Android phone.  This doesn’t mean the phone itself will be bad, in fact it may be the best Android phone available.  After using the Samsung Focus for a week, it’s very appealing to think of a vanilla Android build on a Super AMOLED screen, especially with a new class-leading processor.  It remains to be seen, though, whether the phone will be sold at retail or online, or even whether it will be on a carrier other than T-Mobile.  If not, it will not be a big seller, it will not set a precedent, and it will not be particularly memorable six months later.  If it exists only to introduce Gingerbread, then Eric Schmidt or Vic Gondotra might as well stand on that stage and say, “Thanks for coming!  These are the new features in Android 2.3.  We’re going to release the source code tomorrow.  Now everyone go out and release phones that look and behave nothing like this three months from now.  Thanks!”