Cost: $30.00

If you do not want to order online, and would prefer to send in your order using email, fax, mail or phone, download and print the ORDER FORM.

If you questions, please email help@victorybriefs.com or call 310-472-6364.

 

About the Product

Author(s) and/or Contributor(s): Saad Asad, Stephen Babb, Jessica Bailey, Adam Torson

Description: Topic analysis and evidence for the November2012 PF topic. Subjects covered include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, US Drone Strikes in Pakistan, the Arab Spring, the civil war in Syria, and much more.

File Index

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………………………………………………….. 2

 

Topic Analysis by Saad Asad………………………………………………………………………. 6

 

Topic Analysis by Stephen Babb……………………………………………………………… 16

 

Topic Analysis by Jessica Bailey…………………………………………………………….. 25

 

Topic Analysis by Adam Torson………………………………………………………………. 38

 

AFFIRMATIVE EVIDENCE…………………………………………………………………………………. 45

 

Counter-Terrorism……………………………………………………………………………………………… 45

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S MIDDLE EASTERN POLICIES SUCCEEDED IN DECAPITATING AL QAEDA AND ENDING THE WARS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 45

 

SINCE 2006, THE CHANCES OF BEING KILLED IN A TERRORIST ATTACK HAVE GONE DOWN DRAMATICALLY                46

 

SINCE 9/11 THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST GROUPS HAS DECLINED CONSIDERABLY THANKS TO US FOREIGN POLICY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47

 

US SUPPORT OF ARAB SPRING MOVEMENTS HELPED TO REDUCE AL QAEDA’S RECRUITING APPEAL           48

 

Arab Spring………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 49

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN REASONABLY SUCCESSFUL IN NAVIGATING THE ARAB SPRING    49

 

EGYPT’S PRAGMATIC DESIRE FOR STABILITY MAKES IT UNLIKELY TO BECOME AN IDEOLOGICALLY DRIVEN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 50

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION SHOWED FORESIGHT IN PREPARING FOR DOMESTIC UPHEAVAL IN THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 51

 

THE US USED ITS CLOSE TIES TO THE EGYPTIAN MILITARY TO PROTECT PROTESTORS DURING THE ARAB SPRING 52

 

US SUPPORT OF ARAB SPRING MOVEMENTS HELPED TO REDUCE AL QAEDA’S RECRUITING APPEAL           53

 

Syria………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 54

 

THE IMPERFECT STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH EGYPT IS OFFSET BY THE STRATEGIC GAIN OF DESTABILIZING THE SYRIAN REGIME, ONE OF IRAN’S FEW ALLIES……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 54

 

THE US HAS REFRAINED FROM CALLING FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION IN SYRIA BECAUSE IT DOES NOT HAVE A VISION FOR POST-ASAD SYRIA…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 55

 

Libya…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56

 

THE INTERVENTION IN LIBYA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY NATO COOPERATION AND SUCCEEDED IN PROTECTING CIVILIANS RESISTING THE GOVERNMENT……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56

 

THE NATO INTERVENTION IN LIBYA WAS A SUCCESS………………………………………………………………………… 57

 

COOPERATION WITH REGIONAL POWERS LEGITIMIZED THE INTERVENTION IN LIBYA………………….. 58

 

IN LIBYA THE US “LED FROM BEHIND” TO AVOID BACKLASH AGAINST PERCEIVED UNILATERALISM 59

 

Pakistan……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 60

 

DESPITE ONGOING TENSIONS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO MAINTAIN A FRIENDLY RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN  60

 

Iran……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 61

 

IF IRAN ACQUIRED A NUCLEAR WEAPON IT WOULD BE EMBOLDED TO ACT AGGRESSIVELY THROUGH PROXY GROUPS        61

 

A NUCLEAR IRAN MIGHT ALLOW HEZBOLLAH TO USE MORE SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS…………… 62

 

A NUCLEAR IRAN MIGHT INCREASE THE USE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS AND MILITARY AGGRESSION THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 63

 

A NUCLEAR IRAN MIGHT PROP UP THE ASSAD REGIME IN SYRIA OR UNDERMINE THE ISRAEL-PALESTINE PEACE PROCESS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 64

 

WALTZ READS HISTORY WRONGLY WHEN HE ARGUES THAT STATES BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE WHEN THEY ACQUIRE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 65

 

ESTABLISHING A NUCLEAR DETERRENT MAKES PROVOCATION AT LOWER INTENSITY LEVELS SEEM SAFE, THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY AMONG NUCLEAR POWERS…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 66

 

THE ADMINISTRATION’S POLICY OF ENGAGEMENT BACKED UP BY STRONGER CONSEQUENCES HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE AGAINST IRAN………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 67

 

THE ADMINISTRATION’S NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL AGAINST IRAN 68

 

US EFFORTS HAVE EFFECTIVELY STIFFLED IRAN’S DESIRE TO PROJECT ITS POWER REGIONALLY 69

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WILL BE ABLE TO RESIST ISRAELI PRESSURE FOR A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST IRAN                70

 

Sound General Strategy……………………………………………………………………………………… 71

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ SKILLFULLY MET STRATEGIC AND DIPLOMATIC REQUIREMENTS FOR SUCCESS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 71

 

US FOREIGN POLICY HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY FLEXIBLE IN RESPONSE TO NEW CHALLENGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST             72

 

A SECOND OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOMMIT IN THE MIDDLE EAST 73

 

AVOIDING RIGID, DOCTRINAL POLICIES HAS GUIDED THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO SUCCESSFUL POLICIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 74

 

THE DEATH OF OSAMA BIN LADEN GIVES THE ADMINISTRATION THE STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY TO DRAW DOWN MILITARY FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 75

 

APPOINTING GENERAL PETRAEUS AS DIRECTOR OF THE CIA CREATES MORE FLEXIBILITY IN US POLICY AND DOES NOT DAMAGE ADMINISTRATION RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY……………………. 76

 

THE DEATH OF BIN LADEN HAS GIVEN THE ADMINISTRATION GREATER FOREIGN POLICY CREDIBILITY         77

 

NEGATIVE EVIDENCE………………………………………………………………………………………. 78

 

Afghanistan……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 78

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S POLICY HAS BEEN TOO INCONSISTENT TO MAKE EFFECTIVE GAINS IN AFGHANISTAN                78

 

IN AFGHANISTAN THE US HAS FOCUSED TOO MUCH ON SECURITY AND NOT ENOUGH ON DEMOCRATIZATION          79

 

THE US MUST SUPPORT AFGHANISTAN BOTH MILITARILY AND FINANCIALLY BEYOND 2014………. 80

 

THE KARZAI REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN IS WEAK AND INCOMPETENT………………………………………………. 81

 

THE US MUST PRESS FOR REFORM OF THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT IF THERE IS TO BE LONG TERM STABILITY IN THE COUNTRY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 82

 

THE UNITED STATES SHOULD ENSURE A PEACEFUL AND DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION OF POWER IN 2014     83

 

THE US SHOULD SUPPORT THE AFGHAN REGIME WITH FOREIGN AID AS LONG AS IT IS INSTITUTIONALLY NECESSARY          84

 

THE US SHOULD SUPPORT RECONCILIATION WITH DIVERSE CONSTITUENCIES IN AFGHANISTAN, INCLUDING THE TALIBAN 85

 

THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO BRING REGIONAL POWERS LIKE PAKISTAN ON BOARD TO THE PROCESS OF STABILIZING AFGHANISTAN………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 86

 

Pakistan……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 87

 

THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO TAKE A TOUGHER LINE WITH PAKISTAN……………………………………….. 87

 

EVEN THOUGH PAKISTAN HAS NOT FOLDED TO PRESSURE IN THE PAST, THOSE WERE DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES           88

 

THE US NEEDS TO TAKE A TOUGHER LINE WITH PAKISTAN BECAUSE THE TWO COUNTRIES DO NOT INHERENTLY SHARE CORE INTERESTS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 89

 

THE SOUR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE US AND PAKISTAN IS HARMING US NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS         90

 

THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSER RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN TO PROTECT NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 91

 

WASHINGTON MUST BETTER SUPPORT DEMOCRATIZATION IN PAKISTAN…………………………………….. 92

 

Iran……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 93

 

THE AGGRESSIVE US STANCE TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE UNNECESSARY AND COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 93

 

IN THE RECENT PAST STATES HAVE HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM  94

 

DEVELOPING STATES HAVE POORLY DESIGNED BUREAUCRATIC SYSTEMS THAT INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 95

 

THE DANGER OF PROLIFERATION FROM EX-SOVIET NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS IS OVERSTATED…….. 96

 

THE US AND ISRAEL HAVE CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATED THE PROSPECT FOR A SUCCESSFUL IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 97

 

THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS DYSFUNCTIONAL BECAUSE THE REGIME PRIVILEGES LOYALTY OVER SCIENTIFIC ABILITY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 98

 

IT IS UNRELIABLE TO ASSUME THAT IRAN HAS SECRET CAPABILITIES TO COMPLETE ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS         99

 

DEVELOPING STATES CAN EASILY BUNGLE EASY STEPS OF THE NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROCESS          100

 

AN AGGRESSIVE POSTURE TOWARD IRAN COULD FOMENT A SENSE OF NATIONALISM AMONG SCIENTISTS THAT ACTUALLY SPEEDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS……………………………………………………………………. 101

 

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS DO NOT NECESSARILY PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS       102

 

A NUCLEAR IRAN IS LIKELY TO IMPROVE MIDDLE EAST STABILITY, NOT DECREASE IT……………… 103

 

ISRAEL’S AGGRESSIVE RESISTANCE OF NUCLEAR BALANCING IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED REGIONAL INSTABILITY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 104

 

IRANIAN LEADERS ARE RATIONAL ACTORS WHO WOULD AVOID USING NUCLEAR FORCE FOR FEAR OF RETALIATION            105

 

THE WORRY THAT IRAN WILL PASS NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO TERRORISTS OR BE OTHERWISE EMBOLDENED TO SUPPORT THEM IS MISPLACED…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 106

 

AN IRANIAN BOMB IS UNLIKELY TO SPUR RAPID PROLIFERATION AND A MIDDLE EAST ARMS RACE                107

 

IRANIAN NUCLEAR CAPABILITY WOULD CREATE A STABILIZING DETERRENT EFFECT; SANCTIONS ON IRAN SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 108

 

Israel-Palestine…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 109

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS FAILED TO MAKE EFFECTIVE DIPLOMATIC GAINS IN THE ISRAEL-PALESTINE PEACE PROCESS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 109

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL HAS BEEN TONE-DEAF…….. 110

 

Egypt……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 111

 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S FAITH IN THE EGYPTIAN ARMY TO SECURE THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IS QUESTIONABLE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 111

 

THE FUTURE OF EGYPT’S LIBERAL DEMOCRACY IS STILL IN DOUBT…………………………………………….. 112

 

Syria………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 113

 

THE ADMINISTRATION’S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY IN RELATION TO LIBYA HAS TIED ITS HANDS IN GOING AFTER THE ASSAD REGIME IN SYRIA…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 113

 

US Reputation…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 114

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS FAILED TO IMPROVE US RELATIONS WITH ARAB NATIONS         114

——

If you do not want to order online, and would prefer to send in your order using email, fax, mail or phone, download and print the ORDER FORM.

If you have questions, please email help@victorybriefs.com or call 310-472-6364.